Evidence record

Experienced developer productivity

Late-2025 study update · METR · 2026-02-24

Reported result · qualitative

METR reports that selection effects make the later experiment unreliable for estimating current productivity gains.

Interpretability assessment · qualitative

independent evaluation · extraction review: agent checked

Source and extraction

Published 2026-02-24

Evaluation setup

selection ruleVolunteer participation and self-selected submitted tasks
comparability caveatsSelection and concurrent-agent time measurement biases.

Not reported: split, task count, task snapshot, attempts per task, run count, aggregate method, token budget, wall clock budget, hardware, training budget, inference budget, monetary cost, tool access, internet access, filtering, scaffold, evaluator version, human intervention, task exclusions, contamination concerns.

Comparability

Not compared with other results.

Limitations

  • Reported raw effects are not used as a comparable trend.
  • Experienced developers in familiar open-source repositories; not representative of all work.
  • Later study reports selection bias, so no unqualified trend.